But then, I had a thought.  What if, in addition to sending delegates to Boston, we might send some to New York?

Georgia- 284,431 in 2000, 472,857 in 2004 (80+% reporting)

Maryland- 507,462 in 2000, 230,048 in 2004 (54% reporting)

New York- 921,465 in 2000 (92% reporting), 532,881 in 2004 (78% reporting)

Ohio- 860,568 in 2000 (92% reporting), 773,762 in 2004 (66% reporting)

Rhode Island- 46,844 in 2000, 32,699 (98% reporting)

Vermont- 49,283 in 2000, 59,681 (78% reporting)

(2000 numbers from Dave Leip's US Elections Atlas)

So we've got turnout down everywhere except for Georgia (flag vote), probably Ohio, and the Howard Dean Memorial in Vermont.  Should we be worried?

But hours after the marriages began, New Mexico Attorney General Patricia Madrid said the licenses "would be invalid under current law."
    Madrid's "advisory" opinion came in the form of a letter to state Sen. Timothy Jennings, who had sought the advice after the marriages began Friday morning in Bernalillo.
    "Until the laws are changed through the legislative process or declared unconstitutional by the judicial process, the statutes limit marriage in New Mexico to a man and a woman," Madrid wrote. "Thus in my judgment, no county clerk should issue a marriage license to same sex couples because those licenses would be invalid under current law."

Enconiums from the other candidates and from numerous liberal and moderate columnists would make future attacks difficult
Representatives of the mainstream media have openly stated that they had been unfair to him (and you know how rare such apologies are)
DFA will have time to more thoroughly promote its issues rather than its process

and even a few structural reasons to believe that good things might happen:

No one is expending effort or money in 2/24 primaries
Edwards isn't on the 3/2 Vermont ballot
Dean is on ballots through early May

So here's a possible sequence of events.  Remember, this is being written with tongue firmly in cheek.

You folks are the best! I hope you will all keep active both in our new enterprise as we develop it, but also in the short term. We can still send delegates to the convention, and we should. If you are in a state with district, and state conventions, please make sure everyone goes, so that we send all the delegates we are entitled to. If you are in a state that has not yet voted, be sure to vote. We'll have a great time at the convention.

Thank you all for how hard you have worked, how much money you raised. And thanks for getting involved. It feels a hell of a lot better to try and lose, than not to try at all. In any case I have to say that I don't really feel like we have lost. We only lose if we quit. There is an enormous amount of power in numbers, and we can still change this country (and that is exactly what we're going to do!).

Many thanks,
Howard Dean

How likely is it that he'd get delegates?  For answers, we look to the late 2000 primaries.

By March 14, both parties had selected presumptive nominees, Bush and Gore, with majorities or near-majorities of the available delegates.  We'll look at the primary results starting in April, and see what we find.  All vote totals gathered from Dave Leip's US Elections Atlas.

How likely is it that he'd get delegates?  For answers, we look to the late 2000 primaries.

By March 14, both parties had selected presumptive nominees, Bush and Gore, with majorities or near-majorities of the available delegates.  We'll look at the primary results starting in April, and see what we find.  All vote totals gathered from Dave Leip's US Elections Atlas.

On the plus side, Kerry's got a strong domestic liberal record and a thoroughly professional political operation;  on the minus side, his stands on many issues, foreign policy most notably, smack of opportunism.  But that's not the problem I'm writing about.  That's already been covered ad nauseam.

Nor do I think Kerry is doomed to defeat.  I believe W has a record so poor that Karl Rove can't cover it up, and the media is apparently no longer interested in doing so.

What bothers me is how he's going to win.

But more fundamental questions need to be asked as well.  The biggest question of all is the simplest one, and one that's so obvious that few of us ever think to ask it, as I didn't until this morning.

That question is this:

Does the primary season serve any real purpose?

My answer is no.

The first step I took to make that happen was to get a handle on our budget and our resources. Because of you - including the 3,000 first time donors - we have raised roughly $3 million dollars in the last two weeks. Your continued support and a firm grip on our spending have enabled us to make strategic determinations on how we will spend our resources.

I am pleased to announce after a brief delay that we will pay our staff immediately and honor our commitment to make our payroll moving forward in the campaign. We have also decided to use our resources to build strong organizations in Wisconsin, Michigan, Maine and Washington in addition to an aggressive advertising campaign in Wisconsin.

I wanted you to be the first to hear the good news. Please keep sending your comments and suggestions. Together we will nominate Howard Dean in July and together we will win back the White House in November.

Dean

Edwards

Kerry

Kucinich

Lieberman

Sharpton

Here's the reason why.

"At moments on ABC, the couple seemed so far from mainstream American life and so disconnected from each other's careers, they were like characters who had walked into the wrong play."

When someone says such things, that are so far outside any reality you're aware of, how does one respond?

A Conservative for the Deans by David Franke

Libertarians for the Dingbat by Jerome Tuccille

Make of them what you will.

Only Democrats were asked this question. If the Democratic primary election for president were being held today with the following candidates on the ballot, for whom would you vote?

• Howard Dean: 25%
• Wesley Clark: 12%
• Joseph Lieberman: 10%
• Richard Gephardt: 8%
• John Kerry: 6%
• Carol Moseley-Braun: 3%
• Al Sharpton: 3%
• John Edwards: 3%
• Dennis Kucinich: 2%
• Undecided/Not sure: 25%

• Approve: 48%
• Disapprove: 45%
• Not sure: 7%

• Re-elect: 41%
• Someone else: 51%
• Not sure/Will not vote: 8%

• Dean: 47%
• Bush: 43%
• Undecided/Not sure: 9%
• Refused: 1%

http://www.sunspot.net/news/bal-mondaypoll0109,0,980574.htmlstory?coll=bal-home-headlines

Now that the sample has completely turned over once, we can see the following trends.

Dean is rock-solid at 37%.  Kerry lost a point for the third straight day, while Clark gained one.  Their difference has dropped from seven points (19-12) to three (16-13).

Also, Dick Gephardt gained another point;  at 6%, he's tied with Lieberman for 4th place.  ARG notes that 51% of voters have a favorable impression of Gephardt, but even among them he's in 4th place.  ARG speculates that a Gephardt win will push him into contention in NH.  Never mind that the last Iowa polling shows him losing badly there too (scroll down to "President, Iowa Dem caucuses."